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Hedge bet calculator: lock a profit or cut your risk

Updated

Enter your open bet and the other side’s price to find the hedge stake that gives the same result either way, or breaks even. It also shows what the hedge costs in expected value.

Hedge to
Hedge stake

Adds expected values. Leave blank to skip.

Prices are examples, not live odds.

Hedge stake

$180.00

Locks $20.00 whichever side wins, if the hedge is accepted at this price.

ResultWithout the hedgeWith the hedge
Your bet wins+$200.00+$20.00
The hedge wins-$100.00+$20.00
Hedge stake
$180.00
Hedge price after fee
1.6667 (-150)
Break-even win chance
40.0%
  • If you think your bet still wins more than 40.0% of the time, riding it has a higher expected value than any hedge at this price; below that, hedging has.
  • A locked profit needs every bet accepted at these prices. A void, a limit or a price that moves first breaks it.

Prices here are examples you can change, not live odds. The live dashboard shows today’s prices. The example is a $100 bet at +200 whose other side is now −150.

How do I hedge a bet?

  1. Enter your original stake and the odds you got.
  2. Enter the price you can now bet on the other outcome, and pick the venue so an exchange fee is included.
  3. Choose a mode: equal profit, break even, or your own hedge stake.
  4. Read the hedge stake and the table of results with and without the hedge. Optionally enter your own chance that the original bet still wins to see the expected values.

A hedge is a bet on the opposite outcome. It changes your result in both cases, and it only helps if the price you type is a price you can actually get.

How is the hedge stake calculated?

For equal profit the hedge stake is H = S × d1 / d2, where d1 is your original decimal odds and d2 the hedge price after any fee. To only get your stake back if the original bet loses, use H = S / (d2 − 1).

equal profit:  H = S x d1 / d2
break even:    H = S / (d2 - 1)
if your bet wins:  S x (d1 - 1) - H
if the hedge wins: H x (d2 - 1) - S

The example: $100 at +200 (decimal 3.00) with the other side now −150 (1.667). Equal profit needs H = 100 × 3 / 1.667 = $180.00 and locks $20.00 whichever side wins. Break-even needs $150.00: you lose nothing if your bet loses and keep $50.00 if it wins.

When does hedging make sense?

Hedging beats riding your bet, in expected value, only when you believe the bet wins less often than the hedge price implies for your side. That break-even chance is 1 − 1/d2, or 40.0% in the example. At any win chance above it, riding has the higher average, and the hedge is insurance that costs expected value.

EV(hedged) = EV(ride) + H x ((1 - p) x d2 - 1)
hedging helps on average only when p < 1 - 1/d2

If you think the original bet wins 45% of the time, riding is worth $35.00 on average and the equal-profit hedge $20.00, so the hedge costs $15.00. Many people hedge anyway to cut variance or to bank a profit; that is a choice about risk, and the number above is its price. To estimate your chance, take the margin out of the current market with the no-vig calculator.

Can I hedge a parlay or a live bet?

Yes, with care. For a parlay, enter the parlay’s combined odds as the original odds and the price of the outcome that would sink it, usually the last leg’s opposite; the stake you hedge with is sized for that one remaining leg. For a live bet, prices move in seconds and a sportsbook may suspend a market, so the hedge price you type may not be there when you place it. In both cases the calculator assumes the other side’s price is available in the size you need.

Can I hedge at an exchange?

Yes. Pick the exchange as the hedge venue and enter its contract price, in cents if you like. The fee is applied for you: at a 60¢ Kalshi contract the fee on one contract is 0.07 × 0.60 × 0.40 = $0.0168, the effective decimal price is 1.6213 instead of 1.667, and the equal-profit hedge for the example grows to $185.04 and locks $14.96 instead of $20.00. Contracts are whole units and an exchange fills only the depth resting at its price, so enter the depth if you know it. Fees as checked Oct 6, 2026 are on the arbitrage calculator page.

Does hedging guarantee a profit?

No. It locks the result shown only if the hedge is accepted at the price you typed. A voided bet, a limit that stops you from betting the full amount, a price that moves while you place the first leg, or a settlement rule that differs between venues can all break the lock.

The live dashboard works out hedges for promotions automatically.