Bonus bet calculator: hedge a free bet into cash

How do I use the bonus bet calculator?

1. Type the bonus amount and the odds of the bet you will place with it.
2. Type the price of the opposite outcome at the venue where you will hedge with cash, and pick that venue so a fee is applied if it is an exchange.
3. Read the hedge stake and the locked profit. The table shows the result if the bonus bet wins and if it loses.
4. Open the unhedged line to compare the lock with the bonus bet’s average value, using the chance from the two prices or one you enter.

Check the terms of the token first: the minimum odds, which markets qualify and when it expires. The calculator cannot see them.

How does a bonus bet turn into cash?

You bet the bonus on one outcome and a cash stake on the other, sized so both outcomes pay the same. The bonus bet returns only its winnings, so the hedge stake is H = B(d₁ − 1)/d₂, and the profit you lock is B(d₁ − 1)(d₂ − 1)/d₂.

hedge stake H = B x (d1 - 1) / d2
locked profit  = B x (d1 - 1) x (d2 - 1) / d2
conversion     = locked profit / B

For a $25 bonus bet at +400 (decimal 5.00) hedged at −400 (1.25): H = 25 × 4 / 1.25 = $80.00, and the locked profit is $20.00, a conversion of 80%. If the bonus bet wins it pays $100.00 and the hedge loses $80.00; if it loses you owe nothing on it and the hedge pays $20.00 in profit. Hedge the same bet at −450 instead and the pair now carries a margin: the hedge is $81.82, the lock is $18.18 and the conversion falls to 72.7%.

What is a good conversion rate?

The most a bonus bet can convert to is 1 − 1/d, reached when the hedge is priced fairly; real hedge prices carry a margin, so you get less. SlateProof’s engine values a bonus bet at 65% of face by default and treats 59% to 78% as the usual range once it is hedged, which is why the calculator reports the number you actually get instead of assuming one.

An upper bound. The hedge side’s margin or fee lowers it.

Should I hedge a bonus bet or let it ride?

Hedging gives a smaller average return in exchange for removing the chance of getting nothing. With the −450 hedge above, the bonus bet at a fair 18.8% chance is worth $18.81 on average, but pays nothing 81.2% of the time; the hedge locks $18.18 either way and gives up $0.63 of the average to the hedge side’s margin. The right choice depends on how much variance you accept; the calculator shows both numbers.

Can I hedge at Kalshi or another exchange?

Yes, if the exchange is available in your state, and the fee changes the answer. A hedge at an 80¢ Kalshi contract has an effective decimal price of 1.2327 after the fee, so the same $25 bonus bet at +400 needs a $81.12 hedge (100 contracts plus a $1.12 fee) and locks $18.88, a conversion of 75.5% instead of 80%. Exchange prices have no sportsbook margin, which can still beat a sportsbook hedge. Two limits apply: the exchange fills only the depth that rests at its price, and contracts are whole units. Compare venues on the exchanges page.

How do no-sweat bets and refunds differ?

A refund paid as a bonus bet is worth about the same as any bonus bet, but one paid as site credit or cash is worth more. SlateProof’s engine assumes 65% of face for a bonus bet, 95% for site credit that must be wagered once but whose stake comes back, and 100% for cash. These are assumed values, not offers; the terms in your account decide. The bonus bets guide explains each form.

Which odds should I choose?

Longer prices convert better, as the table above shows, but the hedge on a long shot has to be priced fairly and filled in size, which is harder on a prop. Respect the token’s minimum odds, and avoid lines where either venue limits stakes below what you need.

What are the risks?

• Voids and limits. A void on one side leaves the other unhedged.
• Expiry and minimum odds. Tokens expire, often within days, and many set a minimum price. Check the terms.
• The stake is not returned. A bonus bet that loses costs you nothing, but one that wins pays only the winnings.
• Taxes. Winnings can be taxable. This is not tax or legal advice.

Related calculators and guides

• Hedge calculator

  Hedge a cash bet you already hold, with equal-profit and break-even modes.

• Profit boost calculator

  Value a boost with its cap and maximum wager, and the hedge that locks it.

• Bonus bets guide

  What a bonus bet is, how long it lasts and how conversion is measured.

• Sign-up offers guide

  How to value the offers that arrive as bonus bets.